National Hope: Butler's Cabin, with Tony McCoy up, 2nd from right, on the way to winning the Irish Grand National win in 2007. Can the duo do it at Aintree on Saturday
The National
THE world’s greatest betting race takes place this weekend. Yes, folks, we can only be talking about the Grand National.
A total of 40 runners will go to post at 4.15pm on Saturday for the most exciting race in the world. Everybody and their granny has a bet in the National and our usual advice to all punters out there is GET IN EARLY, GET YOUR BETS DONE AND GET OUT before the stampede begins; and believe me it will.
Check out opening times this weekend for your local bookmakers. Sean Grahams open their doors at 9am on Saturday morning and if you are a once-a-year punter take advantage of the help desks that Grahams have on offer this weekend.
Let’s get down to the nitty-gritty of the big race on Saturday. We got it down to 10 live contenders on Monday and now we’ve got down to a short-list of four horses, and that was hard work. One thing about the National – my four predictions could fall at the first. The National, my friends, is about 80% luck and 20% skill.
A blogger put up great stats about the National on the PG Blog here last week which I think need to be taken seriously and read carefully if you aa serious gambler. Here are some very interesting National trends that you ATN readers might take on board when trying to pick a National winner...
WEIGHT
In the last 57 years only Red Rum has carried more than 11st 5lbs to victory, while Hedgehunter is the only horse since Corbiere in 1982 to carry more than 11st (and Hedgehunter only carried 11st 1lb). We know there is no Red Rum in this year’s field so we’re looking for a horse carrying no more than 11st.
AGE
The last time a 7-year-old won the National was 68 years ago and you have to go back a further 27 years to find the last 6-year-old winner. You'll be looking for a horse aged between 8 and 12 inclusive.
Only 2 teenage horses have won the National and the last one was 85 years ago.
Horses aged in double figures have won 12 of the last 18 runnings but 9-year-olds also have a decent record.
DISTANCE
Every winner of the National since 1970 has previously won over 3m or further, so that defeats the myth that 2m 4f horses are perfect for the National.
In ’07 all six runners who had yet to win over 3m or further failed to finish, as did the seven similar runners in ’06.
BREEDING
No French-bred horse has won the National in almost 100 years. In ’08 eleven French-bred horses took their chance, including favourite Monkerhostin, and none of them was placed.
HEADGEAR
Blinkered, visored or cheekpieced horses have a poor record in the National. Since L'Escargot in 1975 only Earth Summit has carried headgear to victory. Since then 146 horses have failed to carry headgear to victory, although McKelvey finished 2nd in ’08 with headgear on.
IRISH HORSES
Irish-trained horses have a good record in the National, winning 6 of the last 9.
PREVIOUS RUNNERS
In the past 20 years 18 of the horses finishing in the first 4 ran in the previous year’s National. SIX of the last seven winners had previously run over the National fences.
CONCLUSION
Considering all of this, plus some other minor trends, the first 5 home according to the stats are... 1st – SLIM PICKINGS. 2nd – BEWLEYS BERRY. 3rd – CHELSEA HARBOUR. 4th – NAUNTON BROOK. 5th – DUN DOIRE.
All good stuff by our blogger but, as we know, it would take all the luck in the world for those five come in.
On to what the PG think and Ruby Walsh this week opted to ride My Will over his father’s horse. SOUTHERN VIC (20/1). We feel that could be a big mistake as Ted Walsh has trained this horse all season with the National in mind and since Ruby made his decision, Ted’s horse has drifted out to 20s – I’ll be having some of that.
BUTLERS CABIN (10/1) for me would have been in last year’s shake-up only for that fall at the 22nd fence (Bechers Brook) when travelling ominously well. If he jumps round this year he will be in the first four and it could break champion Tony McCoy’s National hoodoo if he gets the leg up on this one.
DARKNESS (25/1) is a dour stayer and absolutely hacked up at Haydock in his prep race . He’ll be spot-on for this and with a clear passage could be a big player on Saturday.
CHELSEA HARBOUR (50/1) is our big each-way hope of the race. He has experience round Aintree, finishing a respectable 9th last year, and he is a year older and wiser and could run a big race at a big price.
So that’s us for another National lottery whatever you back on Saturday, let’s hope you get a run for your money.
9 comments:
Weekend Soccer
Back to the bread and butter of the Premiership this weekend, and thank God for that. We start with our odds-on Fivehit at Craven Cottage.
PG FIVEHIT
LIVERPOOL (8/13) are on a golden run at the minute and must be taken to beat Fulham who beat champions Man Utd in their last game. But I think they got the champs on a really bad day.
ARSENAL (4/7) are another in-form team and should collect all the points against bad travellers Man City.
HARTLEPOOL (4/6) are struggling and need points on the board, but quick, and should take maximum points at home to doomed-looking Hereford.
SHREWSBURY (8/11) can make it 15 wins at home this season against struggling Grimsby and in the process put them back into a play-off position.
GILLINGHAM (8/13) are chasing automatic promotion and could move into one of the top positions with a win over Barnet.
PG QUAD
On to the weekend quad and we have put DUNDEE UTD (1/1) up as our banker – the in-form Tangerines should get the better of Hibs at Tannadice. Staying in Scotland and First Division leaders ST JOHNSTONE (1/1) can extend their lead at the business end of the season with a win over second-placed Partick.
MORTON (11/8) have only lost once at home all season and can keep that record going with a win over Dundee.
Making this week’s quad up are BRISTOL CITY (11/8) who entertain Preston who have already lost 10 times on their travels this year.
PG XXX
We end with the XXX and they are all in the Premiership, where things are getting so tight.
We fancy Portsmouth to gain a point at Hull while Sunderland can grab a much-needed point at Upton Park against WEST HAM. Making the draw treble up is the visit of SPURS to BLACKBURN who can take a point against Harry Redknapp’s in-form side.
a few winners at long last now on to
Saturday's selections:
1.45 1.Copper Bleu Danger Bouggler
2.15 1. Song Of Songs Danger: Kalahari King
2.50 1. Al Eile Danger: Fiveforthree
3.25 1. Crescent Island Danger: Aimigayle
5.00 Seven Is My Number Danger: Nortonthorpe Lad
The Finale:
1. Zazamix Danger: Lidar
Good Luck Folks
brooklyn brownie 33-1
20e/w
yee haa!
johnnyboy
fell at the 2nd. what was i thinking?
johnnyboy
another good result for spurs at the weekend.
had £50 on the big 4 along with milwall so quids in.Makes up for the 3 horses i did at the national that fell!
petrot chelly
spurs are what you call a bookies team.
You should never go near them on a bet.They are Chelsea and Arsenal wanabees and always will be
perry groves
Footballer puts wind up referee
A referee ordered a penalty to be retaken in a Sunday league football game when an opposition player broke wind as the ball was kicked.
The Chorlton Villa player got a yellow card for the noise which was classed as "ungentlemanly conduct".
The team, who conceded a goal on the second take, went on to win the match 6-4 against International Manchester FC at Turn Moss in Stretford, Manchester.
Villa manager Ian Treadwell said their conduct was "normally exemplary".
We are not a dirty team and we like to play football
Chorlton Villa manager Ian Treadwell
"One of our players 'broke wind' and only the referee heard it and he booked the player," he said.
"The other player had the penalty saved because it was a bad penalty; it was nothing to do with any noise. They were as shocked as we were as to why."
Mr Treadwell said he was waiting for the Football Association to contact them after it had received a report.
The Manchester Publicity league club faces total fines of £97 for three dismissals and two yellow card bookings from the game.
'Just hilarious'
Mr Treadwell said: "We are not a dirty team and we like to play football.
"While I won't condone the actions of the players, it is an emotive game and some of the players were sent off for entering into conversation with the referee.
"This has come at a bad time in the season as we don't have sponsor and we are looking for a new sponsor for next season."
Pauline Riley, secretary and treasurer of International Manchester FC, said both team were "very friendly".
"There's no animosity. It was just hilarious," she said.
what annoys u pricks so much bout spurs? do they pose that much of a threat to yiz that you have to constantly refer to them if they lose. didnt read your bullshit last week when they beat chelsea or was your computer broke? heres one for yiz, bar the Carling cup final spurs have a better record against the top 4 than the top 4 have against each other. Villa lose a 2-1 lead to utd and theres not a word about it, but if spurs lose yiz cant wait 2 spew your bile. tell me, how did your teams go at the weekend? let me guess, utd or arsenal men who were nowhere to be seen until 1993.
internet slabbers
spursman
spursman,dry your eyes.
come back when you win the premiership or even finish in the top 4.
zoooooooooooooooooom
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