
DAY ONE
IT’S that time of year again already folks as Cheltenham 2009 gets under way this Tuesday.
It’s quite simply the World Cup of National Hunt racing and the four-day festival will see aN influx of thousands of Irish punters who descend on Cheltenham every year.
We will preview the Tuesday/Wednesday this week and review the final two days, Thursday/Friday, in next week’s Punters Guide.
We start with the big race on Tuesday, the Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy, and many people’s banker of the meeting Binocular who trades around the 6/4 mark – but is he beatable?
He reminds me of the legend that is Istabraq, runs in the same silks worn by the three-times champion, and if he is half the horse then he will take some stopping – we’ll not know how good this horse really is until next Tuesday.
A stat that is against him is that 16 of the last 20 winners had won at Cheltenham before – which is something Binocular has yet to achieve.
I have two outside bets for this one and only a fool would rule out last year’s 10/1 winner KATCHIT.
He has failed to sparkle in his two runs this season but Alan King reports the horse is in good fettle and ready to defend his crown – he’s as big as 14/1 in places.
Last year Sizing Europe went off at 2/1 and he went wrong during the race – he is available at 20s this time round and he’s another horse who hasn’t sparked this year but goes to the festival a fresh horse and for me he looks a cracking each-way alternative to backing the jolly at 6/4.
The opening race of the festival is as wide open as they come and we still don’t know if Willie Mullins will run 3/1 ante-post favourite Cousin Vinny in the race. He should make a decision over the weekend, but does run live outsider KEMPES with Ruby Walsh booked for the 14/1 shot.
I like the look of the Alan King-trained KARABAK who looked half-decent when sluicing home over course and distance in December and the 14/1 could get us off to a great start.
On to the Arkle Chase and we like the look of the Paul Nicholls-trained I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES in this one. He has a course and distance win here and he gets a 7/1 price for the race. Of the outsiders I would love to see the Irish trained FORPADYDEPLASTERER run a big race and he’s our each-way selection at 14/1.
On to the William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase and the money has come for the Johnjo O’Neil-trained Wichita Lineman who knows how to win round here. He looks a big player and gets a generous 8/1 quote with Sean Graham.
Another big player could be the Paul Nicholls-trained Star De Mohaison who once was touted for Gold Cup glory. He’s been blighted by injuries but could pop up on Tuesday and gets a 12/1 quote – rule him out at your peril.
The Cross Country Chase is run over a marathon 3 miles 7 furlongs and Edna Bolger has a great record in this race and looks to hold the aces over last year’s winner GARDE CHAMPETRE and LAMI who are disputing favouritism, but word has it that Lami is the one to beat.
Butlers Cabin could line up in this one and the 25/1 on offer with Sean Graham looks a smashing each-way bet in the race.
Hopefully, we be up a few pounds going into the finale on Day One.
The David Nicholson Mares Hurdle is run over two and a half miles and I have had UNITED from the Lucy Wadham yard in my head for this race since his seasonal debut at Haydock. He won well that day and then won with a bit in hand at Ascot.
We tipped this horse up each-way in the World Hurdle last year and he ran into a 4th place behind Inglis Drever and if he reproduces that form then it’s like this – he wins on Tuesday! And the 4/1 looks a solid bet.
Off the each-way bets in the race, SILK AFFAIR is in great heart and the 33/1 looks a tempting bet to complete the four-timer.
We have opted for champion Tony McCoy at 7/2 to be the top jockey at the Festival this year – he looks better value than Ruby Walsh who gets a 6/5 quote. Robert Thornton is as big as 7/1 and is always worth a quid or two. Day 2 on page 86.
37 comments:
mperial Cup on Saturday with bonus offered for winning this race and a race at Cheltenham...
The Pipe team love this race and have Mr Thriller and Seven is the Number in the race and big fancies...
like the look of the ex-Gordon Elliott trained HARPER VALLEY who has top weight - He is now in the care of Lucy Wadham and gets a 25/1 quote - good each-way bet I hope!
all over United PG think it will take all the beating on Tuesday but like Harchibald in the Champion
Kev
I agree with you PG that Katchit is a must for each-way punters, especially at odds of 16/1 - 14/1. C&D form is a massive bonus at the festival and with 5 wins and one second from 6 runs on the course he cannot be ignored. Plus the small fact that he is reigning champ!!
To be honest I'd rather have Sublimity than Sizing Europe but only if the ground is no worse than good to soft. Harchibald is a horse that you know you can't bet him but something in the back of your head says he could produce a shock. He has the talent alright but his bottle seems to be the problem.
Personally, at the price he is, I cannot have Binocular. There's no way he should be 6/4 and I think you will get 2/1 on the day. He is a class act horse and he is the one to beat but I think there will be stronger finishers up the hill that will thwart his attempt to win.
Cousin Vinny is my NAP of day one (assuming he runs in the SNH). My only worry is that the horse jumps well in general but when he's going flat out he tends to make the odd mistake, but all being well I think he'll win this quite comfortably and continue Irish dominance of that race.
lads what about this whole 6+5 thing surely its against some sort of human right or at least seen to be racist or something....as a gunner im worried that mad man blatter will get his way....
path
Newsletter from Ronan Graham
Gerard ,
Another busy day on the Cheltenham front with various bets on the festival. The main mover in the market is Tatenen in the Arkle ( was 9/2 now 4/1 ) with all the right faces seem to be supporting it with just 5 days to the race . Steady support for Cousin Vinny in the Supreme Novices , we are currently 11/4 the best price available, I don’t know how much longer it will be there for so if any punters fancy it they will need to move quick ! The top jockey market is starting to take shape with the usual wagers on ruby(6/5) and mccoy (7/2) but punters have shown faith in two others geraghty(7/1) and graham lee(40/1) who stables seem to be well represented in most races .
I see Stewart Cink is 2nd in round one in the golf.30/1 i got him at each way.
Have never backed in golf in my life
so this is a first Fred The Red.Have followed your golf tips here for a while so here's hoping this one stays
good and finishes top 5.
m.mcconville
Daily Newsletter from Sean Graham
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2009
DAILY NEWS LETTER
Betting Available Upto Close Of Business Tonight Thursday 5th March
TOP JOCKEY AT THE FESTIVAL
6/5 R.Walsh 20/1 T.Murphy
7/2 Ap.McCoy 25/1 D.Russell
7/1 B.Gerraghty 25/1 S.Thomas
7/1 R.Thornton 33/1 P.Brennan
20/1 Paul.Carberry 33/1 A.McNamara
20/1 R.Johnson 33/1 D.O’Regan
TOP TRAINER AT THE FESTIVAL
10/11 P.Nicholls 20/1 Jonjo O’Neill
4/1 W.Mullins 33/1 P.Hobbs
9/2 N.Henderson 50/1 Howard Johnson
7/1 A.King 50/1 N.Meade
9/1 D.Pipe 50/1 Twiston-Davies
NUMBER OF IRISH TRAINED WINNERS
9/2 O – 3 Winners 4/1 Exactly 6 Winners
9/2 Exactly 4 Winners 5/1 Exactly 7 Winners
4/1 Exactly 5 Winners 3/1 8 + Winners
All The Above Markets Cannot Be Coupled
Win Only – Singles Only ; Others On Request
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL SPECIAL TREBLES
a. b. c.
Binocular Binocular Binocular
Kasbah Bliss Kasbah Bliss Kauto Star
Kauto Star Master Minded Master Minded
14/1 13/2 17/2
d. e. f.
Binocular Binocular Binocular
Kauto Star Master Minded Master Minded
Sicilian Secret Sicilian Secret Cousin Vinny
34/1 17/1 13/1
Special trebles are not guaranteed
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2009
DAILY NEWS LETTER
Betting Available Upto Close Of Business Tonight Thursday 5th March
2.00 Tuesday - SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE 2m\f
11/4 COUSIN VINNY 20/1 AACHEN
6/1 TORPHICHEN 20/1 KANGAROO COURT
10/1 GO NATIVE 20/1 MR THRILLER
10/1 KEMPES 25/1 GOLAN WAY
10/1 MICHAEL FLIPS 25/1 TRENCHANT
10/1 RED MALONEY 33/1 SHAMARI
12/1 AINAMA 40/1 COCKNEY TRUCKER
14/1 MIKAEL D’HAGUENT 40/1 SOMERSBY
16/1 COPPER BLEU 50/1 AMERICAN TRILOGY
16/1 MEDERMIT 50/1 LEOS LUCKY STAR
Each Way ¼ Odds 1-2-3 ; Others On Request
2.35 Tuesday – IRISH INDEPENDENT CHASE 2m
9/2 TATENEN 20/1 BRINGBACKTHEBIFF
5/1 CALGARY BAY 20/1 MADE IN TAIPAN
8/1 IMSINGINGTHEBL’ 25/1 CORNAS
9/1 PLANET OF SOUND 25/1 GAUVAIN
10/1 FORPADDYDEPLAS’ 33/1 PANJO BERE
10/1 KALAHARI KING 40/1 I’M SO LUCKY
14/1 ORIGINAL 40/1 NORTHERN ALLIAN’
16/1 GOLDEN SILVER 66/1 COOL OPERATOR
16/1 FOLLOW THE PLAN 100/1 CHEATING CHANCE
16/1 TARTAK
Each Way ¼ Odds 1-2-3 ; Others On Request
3.20 Tuesday – SMURFIT CHAMPION HURDLE 2m\f
6/4 BINOCULAR 25/1 PUNJABI
7/1 CELESTIAL HALO 25/1 WHITEOAK
10/1 OSANA 33/1 BRAVE INCA
12/1 CRACKAWAYJACK 33/1 HARCHIBALD
14/1 KATCHIT 33/1 SENTRY DUTY
14/1 SUBLIMITY 33/1 SNAP TIE
16/1 JERED 33/1 WON IN THE DARK
20/1 ASHKAZAR 50/1 EBAZIYAN
20/1 SIZING EUROPE 66/1 BLUE BAJAN
25/1 MUIRHEAD 66/1 RIVER LIANE
Each Way ¼ Odds 1-2-3 ; Others On Request
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2009
DAILY NEWS LETTER
Betting Available Upto Close Of Business Tonight Thursday 5th March
2.05 Wednesday – BALLYMORE PROP’ NOV HURDLE 2m5f
4/1 DIAMOND HARRY 20/1 CHINA ROCK
4/1 KARABAK 20/1 KEMPES
5/1 COUSIN VINNY 20/1 KNOCKERA BEAU
6/1 MIKAEL D’HAGUENET 20/1 MICHAEL FLIPS
7/1 MAD MAX 20/1 QUWETWO
10/1 THE NIGHTINGALE 20/1 TORPHICHEN
12/1 BENSALEM 25/1 ACCORDING TO DICK
12/1 CAPE TRIBULATION 25/1 MR THRILLER
12/1 ZAYNAR 25/1 PAUSE AND CLAUSE
Each Way ¼ Odds 1-2-3 ; Others On Request
2.40 Wednesday – ROYAL SUN ALLIANCE CHASE 2m
5/1 COOLDINE 25/1 LODGE LANE
5/1 WHAT A FRIEND 25/1 RARE BOB
7/1 GONE TO LUNCH 33/1` TRANQUIL SEA
8/1 CARRUTHERS 33/1 SKIPPERS BRIG
12/1 MASSINIS MAGUIRE 33/1 WICHITA LINEMAN
16/1 CASEY JONES 33/1 WILL BE DONE
16/1 KILLYGLEN 40/1 CLARIFIED
16/1 THE MARKET MAN 40/1 BRINGBACKTHEBIFF
20/1 BALLYFITZ 40/1 KORNATI KID
Each Way ¼ Odds 1-2-3 ; Others On Request
3.20 Wednesday – QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE 2m
4/11 MASTER MINDED 20/1 BRIAREUS
9/2 VOY POR ESTEDS 40/1 TAMERINBLEU
10/1 BIG ZEB 50/1 MAHOGANY BLAZE
12/1 WELL CHIEF 50/1 SANTAS SON
14/1 PETIT ROBIN 66/1 ASHLEY BROOK
14/1 TIDAL BAY 66/1 SCOTSIRISH
16/1 TWIST MAGIC 100/1 LORD HENRY
Each Way ¼ Odds 1-2-3 ; Others On Request
5.15 Wednesday – WETHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER 2m\f
4/1 SICILIAN SECRET 14/1 UNIVERSAL TRUTH
7/1 DUNGUIB 16/1 GLENLO ABBEY
8/1 QUINOLA DES OBEAUX 16/1 MEATH ALL STAR
8/1 RITE OF PASSAGE 20/1 CRANKYCORNER
12/1 GAGEWELL FLYER 20/1 LIDAR
12/1 SHINROCK PADDY 20/1 MORNING SUPREME
14/1 CADSPEED 20/1 QUEL ESPIRIT
14/1 LIOS A CHAIL 25/1 HENRY KING
Each Way ¼ Odds 1-2-3 ; Others On Request
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2009
DAILY NEWS LETTER
Betting Available Upto Close Of Business Tonight Thursday 5th March
3.20 Thursday – LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE 3m
11/10 KASBAH BLISS 50/1 DUC DE REGNIERE
7/2 PUNCHESTOWNS 50/1 HARDY EUSTACE
11/2 BIG BUCKS 50/1 NENUPHAR COLLONG
10/1 FAIR ALONG 50/1 PETTIFOUR
20/1 BLAZING BAILEY 50/1 P’TIT FUTE
25/1 MIGHTY MAN 50/1 SHAKERVILZ
25/1 MOBASHER 66/1 AFSOUN
25/1 POWERSTATION 66/1 AITMATOV
33/1 TAZBAR 66/1 NO REFUGE
40/1 LOUGH DERG 66/1 POUVOIR
Each Way ¼ Odds 1-2-3 ; Others On Request
1.30 Friday – JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE 2m 1f
4/1 ZAYNAR 16/1 TRENCHANT
9/2 WALKON 20/1 ALEXANDER SEVERU
11/2 MASTER OF ARTS 25/1 MOURAD
7/1 STARLUCK 33/1 PEPITE DE SOLEIL
8/1 EBADIYAN 33/1 RONALDO DES MOTT
8/1 TORPHICEN 33/1 SILK AFFAIR
10/1 MR THRILLER 33/1 SIMARIAN
12/1 JUMBO RIO 33/1 THARAWAAT
16/1 LETHAL WEAPON 33/1 TYRRELLS WOOD
16/1 REVE DE SIVOLA 40/1 ART SLEUTH
Each Way ¼ Odds 1-2-3-4 ; Others On Request
3.20 Friday – TOTESPORT GOLD CUP 3m 2\f
15/8 KAUTO STAR 33/1 IMPERIALCOMMANDR
5/1 NEPTUNE COLLONGES 33/1 WAR OF ATTRITION
7/1 DENMAN 40/1 HALCON GENERAL’
9/1 MADISON DE BERLAIS 66/1 KNOWHERE
10/1 EXOTIC DANCER 66/1 MIKO DE BEAUC’
14/1 BARBERS SHOP 100/1 MY WILL
16/1 ALBERTAS RUN 100/1 NOZIC
20/1 AIR FORCE ONE 100/1 OUR VIC
20/1 STAR DE MOHAISON 100/1 SNOOPY LOOPY
33/1 BIG BUCKS 100/1 STATE OF PLAY
Each Way ¼ Odds 1-2-3 ; Others On Request
I don't know about human rights or it being racist but it certainly would somehow affect 'Equak Opportunity Employment'.
Football clubs are employers and they are going to be told that you can only have 6 foreigners in your team. If they were to tell that to any normal employer i.e. BT, Tescos, Police forces etc. they would be in court in a flash and they wouldn't have a leg to stand on!!
Audere Est Facere(c)i applied for a job in a local carwash and they would not accept me because i was from ireland
now thats descrimination :-) :-) :-)
micky ginge
Backed Cink as well at 28/1,going well
Raffo
Here are some basic Cheltenham Festival betting tips and guidelines.
* Form: Unless you’re betting on the novice races at the Cheltenham Festival, form over the previous two seasons is the single most reliable indicator of a horse’s prospects in any given race. You’ll find that the majority of winners in all the Cheltenham Festival races either won or showed at the race immediately prior to the Cheltenham Festival event.
* Going: Many, but not all, racehorses show a preference for specific track conditions and will tend to rack up the majority of their wins in specific conditions. The track condition is described as the ‘going’ and ranges between firm and heavy. The track at Cheltenham Racecourse is consistently described as good, which means you’ll need to pick out the horses with no preference for either harder or softer tracks.
* Distance: The fact that events like the World Hurdle and Champion Hurdle draw such different fields points to the fact that horses tend to specialise over certain distances. If you see a horse on the card for a 4 mile race that has never raced over a distance greater than 2½ miles, chances are it won’t have much of a chance against the more experienced runners in the field over that distance. The reverse holds true with stayers often unable to handle the demands of the shorter, quicker races.
* Racecourse: One of the often unacknowledged Cheltenham festival betting tips is the importance of venue. Like participants in many other sports, racehorses often have a preference for a particular venue for competition. This may sometimes be the result of a surface preference, but can’t be overlooked if you find that a horse consistently excels or fails at Cheltenham racecourse.
* Novices: The novices races at the Cheltenham Festival provide some of the toughest 2009 Cheltenham Festival betting opportunities. With the horses new to the format it can be easy to forget that these horses often come from careers in flat racing, as the retirement age in flat racing is usually the age at which national hunt careers get underway. This means that a novice’s flat racing record can provide a valuable resource when attempting to predict a novice’s performance in any of the novice events.
Joey T
what you think of my picks puntersguide?:
ARKLE CHASE: Forpadydeplasterer Danger: Kalahari King
CHAMPION HURDLE: Brave Inca Danger: Sublimity
MARES HURDLE: Quevega Danger: United
SUPREME NOV HRD: Cousin Vinny Danger: Master of Arts
BALLY NOV HRD: Mikael Dhaguenet Danger: Karabak
CHAM CHASE: Master Minded Danger: Well Chief
CHAM BUMPER: Cadspeed/Liss na Tintri Danger: Bellvano
RYANAIR CHASE: Tidal Bay Danger: Noland
WORLD HURDLE: Big Bucks Danger: Powerstation
A BARTLET NOV HRD: Pandorama Danger: Pride of Dulcote
FOXHUNTERS CHASE: Freneys Well Danger: Ofarel Dairy
GOLD CUP: Kauto Star NB Danger: Denman
TRIUMPH HRD: Jumbo Rio NAP Danger: Ebadiyan
Paddy
Here are some GOLDEN RULES when betting horses.......
1. Never bet in maiden races. This is a blanket rule for me, due to the fact that there are many different types of unraced horses in a race like this. If you have a bunch of horses that are all unraced you cannot possibly know what you are dealing with. You could have 4 useless horses, 3 quite well bred horses and 1 horse that is easily a cut above the rest, which will win easily. Ask yourself the question how many times do you see a short priced favourite lose in this type of race only for the winner to be priced at 14/1 or more. You may win occasionally betting in this type of race but over the long term you will, in my experience always lose money.
2. Always bet on facts not words. I have listened to many television and radio interviews where horses are hyped up by the press to see their odds shorten to such an extent that the odds do not reflect their chances of winning then when the race comes they either just hang onto place money or finish unplaced. Using The golden goose inside information you will know what 1000’s of people don’t who is really fancies and who is not!!
3. Do not bet on horses that are on the bounce ie horses that are on their second run after a long absence.
4. Favour flat horses that have run within the last 28 days. A horse’s fitness will deteriorate after 28 days of running, obviously the stables will still have the horse working between runs but there is no substitute for race fitness.
5. Bet on horses that finished fourth in their last race. This rule has won me some of my biggest money, in fact my biggest priced winner at 25/1. Horses that finish in the top 3 are normally spot on fitness wise and trying to win. Whereas the horse that finished fourth is not quite ready and if raced again quite quickly is a good indication that the stable believe it is fit has a good chance of winning.
6. Do favour horses that drop in class and distance or both. This is often giving you a good value bet as the betting public prefer horses going the other way as they believe the horse is going upwards and not backwards. Many stables drop their horses like this as it often wins them good money.
7. In all races pay attention to the official BHB figures. There is no better assessor of a horses chances than the handicapper, after all its there job. They have seen all types of horses and every scenario imaginable, they know what there talking about!!
8. It may sound obvious but again it will win you money, for flat horses back spring horses in the spring and autumn horses in the autumn. This type of rule affects a large number of horses, too large to ignore.
9. Never bet in bumpers or National Hunt Flat races. You will lose far more than you win.
10. Again many people will say this is obvious but so many people get caught up in the moment and have another bet to try and win back lost money. ONLY BET IF YOUR HORSE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF WINNING YOU MONEY!!! You do not have to bet there is always another day and always another race. Never chase lost money.
11. Set out a bank of money and stick to it. What I mean is have a maximum amount per bet and a maximum you are willing to lose. Keep track of profit and loss figures.
12. Favour course winners or stables that have a good strike rate at the following tracks as they are particularly difficult courses. Goodwood, Cheltenham, Fakenham & Sandown.
13. The safer way to gamble is make all bets each way bets, even for odds as short as 2/1. Bookies have an industry name for gamblers who only place win only bets, MUG PUNTERS. All bookies I have met 90% of their bets are placed as each way bets, don’t be a MUG PUNTER!!!
Audere Est Facere(c)i bet you do not follow number 9 or 11?
mackers
Paddy forgot about Jumbo Rio for the Triumph but your picks look as good as mine - it's a week of lottery races and you need a lotto of luck - a lot of luck..
Good stuff, Audere Est Facere(c)
but.. No. 3 stat I hope is wrong
3. Do not bet on horses that are on the bounce ie horses that are on their second run after a long absence.
I have went for on ELEAZER on Wednesday - he won after a long lay-off and this will be that second run...
whether the 6-5 proposal is discriminatory or not i dont know, i personally would like to see it. at least its better than the old 3 foreigner rule which i honestly believe hampered utd in the early/mid ninties from winning the european cup. Now im a spurs fan with no great love for utd but could you imagine the predicament ferguson found himself in having to pick just 3 outta schmicheal, cantona, keane, hughes, giggs, irwin, kanchelskis etc...?
johnnyboy
Mackers
No, I don't. In fact up until I received this info about 2 weeks ago I hardly followed any of them.
This info is from a professional punter and not my own advice.
i think the 6-5 rule would be brilliant.
I think arsene wenger would retire if he heard it was coming into play,but although good for english clubs it would be bad for the premiership.
Arsenals last league game=0 english men.
joey t
PG
I always knew about the 'bounce factor' with horses having their 2nd run after a long layoff but I must admit I still backed them.
This guy's advice will stand you in good stead if you follow it religiously EVERYTIME you bet. I know someone might go out and back a horse (like yourself with Eleazer) on it's 2nd run after a long layoff and it might hack up. But what this guy is saying is if you keep a note of these kind of bets over a period of time i.e 1 year you will notice that you have lost more than you have won.
did anyone see the clip of the once great brazilian ronaldo in his comeback game.He made jan molby look thin and then got injured by a reporters microphone when it stuck in his eye
classic tv
micky ginge
was soooo funny
barso
Al Muheer in the 8.20 at Wolverhampton is our advised punt today!
Some news from the London preview night. Check out Robert Thornton's views on Katchit!!.....
Panel:
Mark Pougatch (Chair)
Peter Scudamore – PS
John Francome - JF
Robert ‘Choc’ Thornton – RT
Harry Fry (Assistant to Paul Nicholls) – HF
Bills Esdale (Betting expert) – BE
Day One – Champion Hurdle:
RT: “Katchit is okay”. He’s not been the same horse, and maybe “last year’s win broke his heart”. Interestingly, he schooled well in blinkers, but worked poorly with them on yesterday. Alan King apparently decided on Thursday that he’ll run without them, but RT thinks they should give him a go with them.
JF: Any rain is against Binocular, but he’s the form horse and worked unimpressively at Kempton. He’s also watching the form of the Henderson yard, who came off the boil, but seem to be back to their best. He also likes Snap Tie each-way.
RT: Binocular will get up the hill [later, he said that knowing what they know now, Binocular could have beaten Captain Cee Bee (who RT rode) in the Supreme]
HF: Celestial Halo is very well. Ruby Walsh schooled him and he’s “electric” over hurdles. He’s only run over flat tracks this year and will do better at Cheltenham.
PS: Osana is a better horse than the market says, and should be second favourite. Binocular is prohibitively priced. He can will, but PS doesn’t think he will. He likes the older horses, but also thinks Ashkazar is a good price.
JF: [Asked for a price for Ashkazar, BE provided a price for Whiteoak] “Don’t try to palm me off with some old b****!”
Arkle:
HF: Tatenen is well, and has been kept fresh deliberately. He wants it soft, and you can ignore his Irish run [no reason was given]. At home, he works well with Kauto. In time, he’ll need further.
JF: You need a horse that jumps and stays, and Calgary Bay does this best, even though his form is variable. It’s a weak Arkle.
PS: I’msingingtheblues has the pick of the English form and will be up there, but Forpaddydeplasterer is the best of them and should win.
RT: Calgary Bay is the best bet. I’msingingtheblues had a hard race at Doncaster and that might have been his peak for the season.
Supreme:
PS: Cousin Vinny is a good horse, but is stupidly priced. Torpichen deserves to be there but his jumping is a worry. Michael Flips will go well if the ground is good. Red Maloney is the best of the contenders on the flat and has every chance.
JF: Red Maloney is also the best jumper of the contenders and is JF’s pick. He saw Willy Mullins at a preview, and WM claimed to have “10 as good as Cousin Vinny”.
RT: Medermit is buzzy, and was impressive when schooled on Thursday. He thinks Cousin Vinny would have a better chance with Ruby Walsh on board.
HF: Red Maloney.
Other races:
HF: If it is soft, Star De Mohaison will run in the William Hill, leaving the weights high and giving My Will a good chance.
PS: Millenium Royal is a really well-weighted horse (in the William Hill).
JF: Ruby thinks Quevega is a banker.
Day Two – Champion Chase:
HF: Master Minded is flying at home, and hasn’t had a day off since the Tingle Creek. Ruby will school him on Friday. He’s improved since last year [EB’s note – I think I blacked out for a moment at this point. He was serious.]
RT: Big Zeb doesn’t have a chance of getting near Master Minded.
JF: Briareus has good form (especially from the King George) and is value each-way. He “felt like another Tingle Creek” when JF rode him recently.
PS: Well Chief is well, but PS doesn’t think he’ll be able to get a place.
HF: Twist Magic is well and a good price, but unpredictable. Sam Thomas will ride.
RT: Twist Magic is a good bet, but it “depends which Twist Magic shows up”. He gave RT a very good run until falling in the Tingle Creek.
RSA Chase:
HF: What a Friend will have a good chance and will take a lot of beating. Breedsbreeze might stay on good ground.
JF: Carruthers is the best horse in the race and his Ascot race was “the best run of the season”.
PS: Carruthers will open it up for Cooldine, who isn’t the best of these, but is the grittiest.
RT: What a Friend isn’t good enough to win this.
Ballymore:
RT: Gutted to lose Karabak ride [to AP, JP McManus having bought the horse]. He’s a “proper professional” and a top horse. Bensalem isn’t as good, but will run in this if the ground soft.
PS: Diamond Harry can’t improve – he must have peaked in previous runs. Mikael D’Haugenet is a proper professional and the pick of these.
HF: Ruby Walsh thinks that M d’H is a Gold Cup horse in waiting.
Other races:
JF: Aigle D’Or in the Coral Cup
PS: Mirage D’Or is catching pigeons at home and a big bet for the Coral Cup
HF: Nictory Vote has a good chance in the Fred Winter off his current mark. However, he thinks that Mr Thriller will take all the beating.
PS: Mr Thriller could be as good as any of the Pipe four year olds.
Day Three – World Hurdle:
JF: Kasbah Bliss is a banker. The only worry is that Christophe Pieux can’t ride a horse, and might just fall off.
HF: Big Bucks will improve for coming to Cheltenham’s hill, and Kasbah Bliss won’t relish this as much as Haydock.
RT: “Hopeful but not confident” about Blazing Bailey’s chances. He’s also worried about Kasbah Bliss’ attitude.
JF: Tazbar is well priced and could sneak a place.
HF: Mobaasher needs an end to end gallop and if he gets it he could run into a place. He’ll be blinkered for the first time.
Ryanair:
RT: Voy Por Ustedes is the banker of the week. He was as good LTO as he was when he beat Master Minded at Aintree.
PS: There is nothing to oppose Voy Por Ustedes. Crazy that Tidal Bay isn’t running. Our Vic has been disappointing this year, but the stable was out of form. Probably too old to compete.
Other Races:
HF: Chapoturgeon jumps well enough to compete off his mark in the Jewson.
JF: The Package could go anywhere, but has a chance in the Jewson.
PS: Ping Pong de Sivola should go well in the Festival Plate.
RT: Pennek has course form, and is in first time blinkers for the Pertemps, which can only help. RT spoke to Ruby Walsh on the way to the preview, and Ruby was raving about Pomme Tiepy’s chance in the Kim Muir (but go NRNB as he’s a doubtful runner).
Day four – Gold Cup:
HF: Denman has been worked hard recently, the team learnt a lot from Kempton. He’s not working as well as last year but HF is “hopeful he’ll run a sound race”.
JF: At 6s, Denman is a really good shout (BE – “he’s gone out to 8s since you placed that bet!”)
PS: Madison du Berlais has a chance – though Martin Pipe wanted him to swerve the Gold Cup and go for the National. Kauto Star was struggling for stamina last year, and the pace will be quicker this year. Neptune Collonges has a great chance, but it will be a very challenging race for Christian Williams to get the pace right.
JF: Air Force One ran poorly when the Mann yard was out of form but he’s a good horse and the Hennesey form worked out well. An each-way chance.
RT: Can’t see past Kauto.
HF: Kauto is fresh, wouldn’t stop running on the gallops yesterday (did an extra loop). Neptune Collonges could improve on last year’s run.
JF: Exotic Dancer has had training problems (Jonjo O’Neil says you “often find him standing on three legs”) but if he’s right he still has chances. Barber’s Shop is, according to Mick Fitzgerald, “just not up to it”.
[Mark Pougatch asked about Alberta’s Run. RT made a face. JF said he likes Cheltenham but doesn’t fancy his chances.
HF: Paul Nicholls’ “bet of the meeting” at a Wednesday preview was Star De Mohaison, NRNB at 50/1 each-way. (BE – no longer available, 33s still there). HF agrees he has a huge chance if ground is drying.
Triumph:
RT: Really likes Walkon. He’s getting stronger and is definitely progressive. He’s a good hurdler.
JF: He’s the best jumper of the bunch and has course form.
PS: There are only two hurdles in the last half-mile on this course, and that will suit the dodgy jumpers. Starluck will compete if the pace is reasonable, but stamina is a doubt.
RT: Starluck is a danger, but it’ll be too quick for him and he won’t stay.
JF: Starluck is too big at the jumps and may be a better chaser.
HF: Torpichen being sent to the Supreme is a compliment to Master of Arts and he’s the best chance.
RT: Trenchant is a decent horse, but not in the class of Walkon.
Others:
PS: David Pipe really wants to win the Martin Pipe race. Mamlook is the best of his horses, but Gaspara is another with a good chance. The one they’re worried about is Pen le Bains.
RT: Bensalem has a very good chance if he goes for the Albert Bartlett, but it is just a bonus – he’s chasing next year.
HF: Pride of Dulcote is the one for the Albert Bartlett, and may be the best Nicholls chance after Master Minded.
Naps:
JF: Carruthers
HF: Celestial Halo e/w
RT: Bensalem
PS: Mirage d’Or
BE: Quevego
Responses to questions:
HF: Big Bucks will go to a Gold Cup in future but he isn’t ready yet (jumping). Might go for the 3m chase at Aintree. Mobaasher is the best value of the long-priced Nicholls horses.
RT: Karabak would have been his best banker (ahead of Voy Por Ustedes) if he’d kept the ride.
BE: Paul Nicholls’ lay of the meeting is Calgary Bay. Browns Baily is overpriced in the Albert Bartlett.
PS: The Pipe’s best chances are their three four year olds (Torpichen, Master of Arts, Mr Thriller). Tom Scudamore thinks his best ride of the week is Master of Arts (JF disagrees, vehemently)
JF: Even if JF had only one bet left to live off, he’d still put his last £500 on Carruthers.
They were asked about the bumper, but I think it is fair to say nobody had a clue.
OK LADS,its on £700 on utd at 10/11(plus 10%)
have a good weekend,half day here.
Raffo
Good stuff - mixed views, which makes getting a winner next week even more difficult - but good read!
10% only applies on trebles Raffo mate!
see arsene wenger is shouting his mouth off again about players being too dirty.
What a cheek he has! His arsenal team have a disgraceful record of 76 red cards in 12 years , the worst in the league!
petrot chelly
Aye but he did not see most of them...
well to be honest if u read the daily mirror take on it wenger actually sticks up for ronaldo....an says he doesnt get enough protection....
sure theo is the same he gets kick stupid every time he gets near the ball.
any1 know off hand arsenal price for 4th spot def think they r a good thing now...villa next few games are very difficult, and with the players arsenal have comin back in the next few weeks they might sneak 3rd.
the in-form Sammy Spiderman looks a good thing in the 4.05 Ayr.
Also like National Petition in the 4.20 @ Wincanton
JOHN 3 : 16
Anonymous HOW DARE YOU MENTION THEO WALCOTT IN THE SAME BREATH AS RONALDO!!
SHAME ON YOU
Anonymous 11
Tip for Saturday
Chelsea -1
get the house on it bloggers
Kev
no chance---stay away
fred the red
just had 50 on that horse PG at 7/1 I got 400 in the bank
100 on your FA cup quad nad 300 for cheltenham i tink
AS USUAL GREAT PICKING
KEV
fair play to ya raffo. good lumping. tell me this, would you often lump on a single or is it just man utd when you strongly fancy them? not being funny there, just interested in your next one as im overdue one myself. last one i did was 400 on wolves 5 or 6 weeks ago at 6/4. winning 2-0 after 65mins and drew 2-2. felt like spewing.
johnnyboy
Johnny boy,have just surfaced after a nights celebrations.Was also waiting on utd for a £100 quad also.so touched for £1600 for the quad and doubled up on utd single.
If i touch or a few quid i would lump on a few singles but also know when to stop mate but the last 2 utd matches have been too good to turn down.I thought yesterdays price of 10/11 was a mistake.The difference in class is there to be seen.
Free one if i have ever seen one.
I'M now going out for a cure and i know this is tricky but i am having £300 on everton.Not a great team but should have too much for boro.If not i am still quids in.
Raffo
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